Volume 1
List of Contributors xiii
Acknowledgements xxv
1 Climate Change: The Physical Picture 1
Tony Eggleton
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Climate 1
1.3 Knowledge Gaps 6
1.4 Climate Change 8
1.5 Evidence for Change Since 1880 9
1.6 Changes to the Ocean 12
1.7 Climates of the Past 16
References 19
2 Future Physical Changes 23
Tony Eggleton
2.1 Introduction 23
2.2 Short-Term Projections – 35 years 24
2.3 Longer Term Changes 35
2.4 Concluding Remarks 38
References 40
3 Climate Change Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture 45
Keith Brander, Kevern Cochrane, Manuel Barange and Doris Soto
3.1 Introduction 45
3.2 Historic Trends in Global Fish Production and Causes of the Trends 46
3.3 Global Patterns of Expected Climate Change and its Impacts 49
3.4 Uncertainties and Assumptions in Projections of Future Global Fish Production 55
3.5 Options for Adaptation and their Implications for the Future 55
3.6 Conclusions 59
References 60
4 Biodiversity and Climate Change in the Oceans 63
David J. Booth, Elvira Poloczanska, Jennifer M. Donelson, Jorge Garcia Molinos and Mike Burrows
4.1 Introduction 63
4.2 Regional Changes on Ocean Physics and Chemistry 64
4.3 Detection and Attribution of Climate Change Effects on Biodiversity of Fish and Fisheries 74
References 78
5 Impacts of Climate Change on New Zealand Fisheries and Aquaculture 91
Matthew H. Pinkerton
5.1 Introduction 91
5.2 The New Zealand Marine Environment 91
5.3 Fisheries and Fisheries Management in New Zealand 93
5.4 Climate Variability and Change in New Zealand 97
5.5 Effects of Climate Change on New Zealand Fisheries and Aquaculture 101
5.6 Concluding Remarks 107
Acknowledgements 109
References 109
6 Impacts of Climate Change on the Marine Resources of Japan 121
Hiroya Sugisaki and Keisuke Murakami
6.1 Introduction 121
6.2 Climate Change Effects on Marine Environments 121
6.3 The Status and Adaptation to Climate Change in Japanese Fishery Species and Predictions for the Future 123
6.4 Climate Change Impacts for Larval Stages of Species Important for Aquaculture and Stock Enhancement 125
6.5 Discussion 126
References 127
7 Impacts of Climate Change on Eastern Australia Fisheries 129
Bruce F. Phillips and David J. Welch
7.1 Introduction 129
7.2 North East Australia 130
7.3 South Eastern Australia 142
7.4 Conclusions 149
References 150
8 Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture of the United States 159
Introduction Written by Jay Peterson, Roger Griffis
Gulf of Alaska Written by Stephani G. Zador, Michael F. Sigler, John E. Joyce
California Current Written by Mary Hunsicker, Steven Bograd, Lisa G. Crozier, Sam McClatchie, James A. Morris, Jr., William T. Peterson, Carol Price
Pacific Islands Written by Phoebe A. Woodworth-Jefcoats
Gulf of Mexico Written by Mandy Karnauskas, Roldan Munoz, Amy Schueller, J. Kevin Craig
Southeast US Atlantic Written by (alphabetically) Nathan Bacheler, Michael L. Burton, Karla Gore, Todd Kellison, James A. Morris, Jr., Roldan Munoz, Carol Price
Northeast US Atlantic Written by Jonathan A. Hare, Kevin D. Friedland and Timothy J. Miller
8.1 Introduction 159
8.2 Gulf of Alaska 160
8.3 California Current 165
8.4 Pacific Islands Region 176
8.5 Gulf of Mexico 180
8.6 Southeast US Atlantic – Climate Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture 185
8.7 Climate Change and Fisheries on the Northeast U.S. Shelf 193
References 198
9 Impacts of Climate Change on Mexican Pacific Fisheries 219
Salvador E. Lluch-Cota, Christian Salvadeo, Daniel B. Lluch-Cota, Romeo Saldivar-Lucio and German Ponce Diaz
9.1 Introduction 219
9.1.1 Fisheries Overview in Mexican Pacific 219
9.1.2 Regional Climate and Environmental Trends 221
9.2 Case Studies 223
9.2.1 Pelagic Fisheries 223
9.2.2 Benthic Fisheries 225
9.3 Discussion 226
9.3.1 Major Uncertainties 226
9.3.2 Implications for Management 228
References 230
10 Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Fisheries and Aquaculture in Chile 239
Eleuterio Yanez, Nelson A. Lagos, Ricardo Norambuena, Claudio Silva, Jaime Letelier, Karl-Peter Muck, Gustavo San Martin, Samanta Benitez, Bernardo R. Broitman, Heraldo Contreras, Cristian Duarte, Stefan Gelcich, Fabio A. Labra, Marco A. Lardies, Patricio H. Manriquez, Pedro A. Quijon, Laura Ramajo, Exequiel Gonzalez, Renato Molina, Allan Gomez, Luis Soto, Aldo Montecino, Maria Angela Barbieri, Francisco Plaza, Felipe Sanchez, Antonio Aranis, Claudio Bernal and Gabriela Bohm
10.1 Introduction 239
10.2 Institutional Framework in Chile for Addressing Climate Change 241
10.3 The Eastern South Pacific Climate System: Evidence and Projections 245
10.4 Case Studies 256
Acknowledgements 315
References 315
11 The Pacific Island Region: Fisheries, Aquaculture and Climate Change 333
Johanna E. Johnson, Johann D. Bell, Valerie Allain, Quentin Hanich, Patrick Lehodey, Brad R. Moore, Simon Nicol, Tim Pickering and Inna Senina
11.1 Introduction to the Pacific Island Region 333
11.2 Pacific Island Fisheries and Aquaculture 338
11.3 Projected Effects of Climate Change on Fisheries and Aquaculture 344
11.4 Implications for Economic Development, Food Security and Livelihoods 360
11.5 Adaptation Options 363
11.6 Future Research 366
11.7 Conclusions 369
References 369
12 Impacts of Climate Change in the United Kingdom and Ireland 381
John K. Pinnegar, Paul Buckley and Georg H. Engelhard
12.1 Background 381
12.2 Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries 385
12.3 Climate Change Impacts on Aquaculture 397
12.4 Discussion and Conclusions 401
Acknowledgements 403
References 403
13 Canadian Fisheries and Aquaculture: Prospects under a Changing Climate 415
Jake Rice, Richard Beamish, Daniel Duplisea, Gregor Reid and Helen Gurley-Smith
13.1 Introduction – The Canadian Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries 415
13.2 Effects of Climate Change on Ocean Conditions 423
13.3 Potential Climate Change Impacts on Canadian Atlantic Fisheries and Fish Stocks 427
13.4 Potential Climate Change Impacts on Canadian Pacific Fisheries and Fish Stocks 433
13.5 Potential Climate Impacts on Canadian Aquaculture Facilities and Production 439
13.6 Conclusions and Implications 443
References 444
14 Potential Impacts of Climate Change in Brazilian Marine Fisheries and Aquaculture 455
Maria A. Gasalla, Patrizia R. Abdallah and Daniel Lemos
14.1 Introduction 455
14.2 Projections from Global Models 458
14.3 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Brazilian Marine Fisheries 459
14.4 Case Study: Evidence of ENSO Effects on Fishery Resources of the Patos Lagoon Region (Extreme South of Brazil) Exploited by Small-Scale Fisheries 463
14.5 Potential Effects of Climate Change in Marine and Brackish Aquaculture 466
14.6 Final Remarks 470
Acknowledgements 472
References 472
Volume 2
List of Contributors xiii
Acknowledgements xxv
15 South Africa 479
Johann Augustyn, Andrew Cockcroft , Sven Kerwath, Stephen Lamberth, Jean Githaiga-Mwicigi, Grant Pitcher, Michael Roberts, Carl van der Lingen and Lutz Auerswald
15.1 Introduction 479
15.2 Climate Change Effects on the Marine Environment 480
15.3 Effects of Climate Change on Marine Resources and Associated Fauna 485
15.4 Management Response to Climate Change Effects on Marine Resources and Aquaculture 511
15.5 Discussion and Conclusions 511
References 516
16 The Seychelles Tuna Fishery and Climate Change 523
Francis Marsac
16.1 Introduction 523
16.2 Observed Responses of Tuna Fisheries to Environmental Anomalies 535
16.3 Projected Environmental Changes and Possible Effects on Tuna Fisheries 547
16.4 Possible Impacts on the Seychelles Economy 560
16.5 Conclusions 561
Acknowledgements 563
References 563
17 The Impact of Climate Change on Marine and Inland Fisheries and Aquaculture in India 569
Bimal Mohanty, Elayaperumal Vivekanandan, Sasmita Mohanty, Arabinda Mahanty,Raman Trivedi, Manoj Tripathy and Jnanendra Sahu
17.1 Introduction 569
17.2 Impact on Biological Processes 575
17.3 Impact on Marine Ecosystems 579
17.4 Impact of Climate Change on Fragile Coastal Ecosystems – The Indian Sundarbans as a Case Study 581
17.5 Impact of Climate Change on Fish Production 587
17.6 The Way Forward 588
17.7 Conclusions 596
References 596
18 Management Adaptation to Climate Change Effect on Fisheries in Western Australia 603
Nick Caputi, Simon de Lestang, Ming Feng and Gary Jackson
18.1 Introduction 603
18.2 Climate Sensitivity of Marine Environment 609
18.3 Effect of Climate Change on Fish Stocks 614
18.4 Climate Change Effect on Aquaculture Species 627
18.5 Implications for Fisheries Management 628
18.6 Discussion and Conclusions 630
References 633
19 Climate Change and Fisheries in the Caribbean 639
Mónica Pérez-Ramírez
19.1 Introduction 639
19.2 Fish Production 640
19.3 Observed and Projected Changes 645
19.4 Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture 649
19.5 Challenges for Fisheries and Aquaculture 652
References 656
20 Impacts of Climate Change on the Southern Ocean 663
Katja Mintenbeck
20.1 Introduction 663
20.2 Southern Ocean Fisheries 669
20.3 Interactions Between Fisheries and Climate Forcing 681
20.4 Management, Monitoring and Future Perspectives 686
Acknowledgements 687
References 687
21 Regional Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Arctic Marine Ecosystems 703
Anne B. Hollowed, Wei Cheng, Harald Loeng, Elizabeth Logerwell and James Reist
21.1 Introduction 703
21.2 Methods 705
21.3 Results 711
21.4 Discussion 718
Acknowledgements 721
Appendix: Barents Sea Commercial Fish Stocks 721
References 723
22 Seagrasses and Macroalgae: Importance, Vulnerability and Impacts 729
Peter I. Macreadie, Jessie Jarvis, Stacey M. Trevathan-Tackett and Alecia Bellgrove
22.1 Introduction 729
22.2 Importance for Fisheries and Aquaculture 738
22.3 Impact of Climate Change on Seagrass and Macroalgae 744
22.4 Climate-Related Loss of Seagrass and Macroalgae and their Potential Links to Fisheries and Aquaculture 749
22.5 Conclusions 751
References 752
23 Impacts of Climate Change on Pelagic Fish and Fisheries 771
Barbara Muhling, Martin Lindegren, Lotte Worsoe Clausen, Alistair Hobday and Patrick Lehodey
23.1 Introduction 771
23.2 Climate Change and the Pelagic Ocean Environment 774
23.3 Impacts on Physiology and Ecology of Pelagic Fishes 776
23.4 Future Projections for Pelagic Fishes 784
23.5 Significance for Fisheries 789
23.6 Management Responses 790
23.7 Conclusions 792
23.8 Case Study: Sardine and Anchovy in the California Current Ecosystem 792
References 797
24 Lobsters in a Changing Climate 815
Bruce F. Phillips, Mónica Pérez-Ramírez and Simon de Lestang
24.1 Introduction 815
24.2 Panulirus cygnus 816
24.3 Panulirus interruptus 820
24.4 Panulirus argus 822
24.5 Jasus edwardsii 826
24.6 Homarus americanus 830
24.7 Adaptation to Climate Change 833
24.8 Conclusions 837
Acknowledgements 839
References 839
25 Climate Change, Zooplankton and Fisheries 851
Hans G. Dam and Hannes Baumann
25.1 Introduction 851
25.2 Direct Response of Zooplankton to Climatic Variables 853
25.3 Indirect Responses of Zooplankton to Climate Change 861
25.4 Implications for Fisheries 863
Acknowledgements 866
References 866
26 Tropical Marine Fishes and Fisheries and Climate Change 875
David J. Booth, David Feary, Donald Kobayashi, Osmar Luiz and Yohei Nakamura
26.1 Introduction 875
26.2 Tropical Currents, Propagule Transport, and Ecosystem Connectivity Under Climate Change Conditions 877
26.3 Climate-Change Induced Range Shifts of Tropical Fishes and Fisheries 883
26.4 Fish and Fisheries in the Hottest Seas, Effects of Climate Change 888
References 890
27 The Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Phytoplankton 997
Donat-P. Hader and Kunshan Gao
27.1 Introduction 897
27.2 Effects of Increasing Solar UV-B on Phytoplankton Caused by Stratospheric Ozone Depletion 901
27.3 Light Climate in the Water Column 903
27.4 Effects of Ocean Warming 905
27.5 Effects of Ocean Acidification and Changes in Seawater Chemistry 906
27.6 Effects of Nutrients on Phytoplankton Growth 908
27.7 Effects of Increasing Pollution 909
27.8 Conclusions and Future Work 911
Acknowledgements 912
References 912
28 Socioeconomic Impacts of Changes to Marine Fisheries and Aquaculture that are Brought About Through Climate Change 925
Natalie Stoeckl, Silva Larson, Joseph Thomas, Christina Hicks, Sean Pascoe and Helene Marsh
28.1 Introduction 925
28.2 Small-Scale, Artisanal and Subsistence-Based Fisheries of the Western Indian Ocean 933
28.3 The Traditional Dugong and Turtle Fisheries of the Torres Strait 937
28.4 Commercial Fisheries of Australia 941
28.5 Discussion 945
28.6 Concluding Comments and Directions for Future Research 947
Acknowledgements 947
References 948
29 Conclusions 959
Bruce F. Phillips and Mónica Pérez-Ramírez
Index 963
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